Growing immigrant populations provide opportunities as well as difficulties for makers and sellers of consumer products. At the national level, sufficient numbers of immigrants can change the nature of entire consumer markets. It is hard to imagine the United States without salsa or other products originally brought to serve only the Latino market, the United Kingdom without its long-standing love of Indian food, which was first established in the days of the Raj and subsequently reinforced by millions of Indian and Pakistani immigrants, or France without falafel or shawarma stands. At the local level, immigrants tend to concentrate in particular neighborhoods, forcing retailers to change the product mix store-by-store.

Labor shortages bring migrant workers
Jobs and other economic opportunities are currently most abundant in countries with under-sized or declining workforces. In 1942, the labor markets of the U.S. were stripped bare by World War II. In the 21^st century, aging resident populations in nearly the entire developed world are causing similar labor shortages. The resident population in the labor market in the more-developed nations of the world will remain constant at best, but more often, it will decline in many countries over the next 20 years, particularly in Western Europe. At the same time, less-developed countries will see their working-age populations grow by over 20%. As the economies of the developed world continue to expand and create new opportunities, those countries will need immigrants to meet labor shortages.

In 2005, over 191 million persons—some 3% of the population of the world—had been living outside their country of birth for a year or longer. In industrialized countries, the number of immigrants more than doubled between 1985 and 2005, from 55 to 120 million. About half of the persons who left a less-developed country end up in the more-developed world, and more than half of those ended up in either the United States or Canada.

Immigrants fuel growth
In the more-developed world, immigrants can make up a substantial share of population growth or provide a hedge against potential declines as native populations age. Because immigrants tend to have higher fertility rates than native populations, especially in the developed world, immigrants and their children are a strong source of population growth. The majority of growth in the United States and Canada comes from immigrants and the second and third generation children of immigrants. In fact, by 2030, virtually all population growth in Canada will come from new immigrants just entering the country. And between 2005 and 2050, immigrants, their children, and their grandchildren will account for 82% of population growth in the United States.

However, immigrants by themselves cannot reverse the rapid levels of population aging seen in the developed world. To maintain the current ratio between the working age population and the population over the age of 65, the United States must accept 10.8 million immigrants per year, each and every year, between now and 2050—far more than have ever entered the country in a single year. Simply maintaining the current size of the working population—not the ratio of workers to retirees—also requires very high levels of immigration. The chart below shows the immigration rates required (immigrants per year as a share of current population) for several countries around the world. Note that Italy, Germany, Russia, and Japan would require immigration rates several times higher than the United States.

A gender shift
The gender character of immigration has begun to change. For much of the 20^th century, the first immigrants to come to a new country were men. They got jobs, established themselves, and then brought other members of their families to new homes. Today, this trend no longer describes the majority of immigrants. The proportion of women migrants to the more developed world has recently reached 51% (55% of legal immigrants to the U.S. are women). While many of these women are coming to unite families, many others are moving on their own as principal wage earners.

As the kinds of jobs available in the developed world change, so will the immigrants who seek to enter the country to take them. As the United States, Western Europe, and the more-developed nations in Asia have moved from an industrial to a service-oriented economy, old jobs that were traditional entry points for male immigrants have given way to new occupations that have more often been filled by women (e.g., medical and healthcare services). As education levels for women in the less-developed world rise, some countries have seen a “brain drain” as women professionals leave home for higher incomes in other countries.

Throughout the developed world, marketers have for years positioned products against unacculturated young men, rightfully assuming that men made up the majority of new entrants. Today, however, this trend has begun to shift, further complicating marketing efforts.

Speak the language
For many immigrants, the biggest struggle in a new country is communication. While some countries evaluate potential immigrants for entry based on their language skills (for example, 25% of a candidate’s possible score on Canada’s points system is based on proficiency in English or French), others—such as the United States—make quotas based on other criteria and require no English skills. The continuing use of other languages is often an area of contention and can become a political controversy.

In many countries, language-based communities provide one of the sternest challenges for consumer product marketers. As the proportion of foreign born persons increases, the need for bilingual marketing communications grows. Even for many second and third generation immigrants, marketing communications in the language they spoke with their parents and grandparents resonate more and are more easily remembered. In the United States, over 30 million people speak Spanish, making it the fifth largest Spanish speaking country in the world.

Faith-filled conviction
One impact of Latin American immigrants into the United States has been a shift in religious affiliation. As the number of Latinos in the U.S. has quadrupled since 1970, the number of Catholics has increased by 38%. About 45% of Catholics aged 18–29 are of Hispanic origin.

In Western Europe, there are similar though smaller changes in the numbers of Muslims. Although Muslims make up less than 5% of the population in most countries, in France, they may be upwards of 10% of total population.

Money flows
When immigrants enter a new country, they often send part of their earnings back home, usually to support their existing families until they too can be brought to the new country. Because of the large numbers of immigrants moving about the world today, these remittances are a substantial amount of money and are among the fastest growing international financial flows.

Flows of monies sent to less-developed countries have more than tripled since the mid 1990s and now account for the equivalent of more than US$208 billion. And this only counts remittances that flow through the banking system. Much more flows through unregulated transfers. In 2006, India received $27 billion in remittances, Mexico $25 billion, China $22 billion, and the Philippines $15 billion. In the Philippines, this accounts for about 10% of the gross domestic product of the entire country, coming from about eight million expatriates. To recognize their contribution to the Filipino economy, each year the government welcomes immigrants coming home for Christmas in an official ceremony.

Unexpected distinctions
When looking at immigration, it is easy to only see broad patterns and overlook key nuances. The major movements of people, like Latin Americans to the United States, while still difficult for marketers to deal with, are relatively easy to quantify. A good example of a key immigrant flow often overlooked is of blacks to the United States over the past 40 or so years. Changes in immigration law have fueled strong growth among black immigrants from the Caribbean and from Africa. Twenty-seven percent of the diversity visas authorized by the 1990 Immigration Act and issued between 1998 and 2006 were awarded to sub-Saharan Africans.

The impact of this high level of immigration is very strongly concentrated in several major cities. More than 25% of the black population of New York, Boston, and Miami is foreign born. These new immigrants accounted for 20% of the growth in the U.S. black population between 2000 and 2006.

Demographically, these new immigrants are fairly different from the native-born black population. While foreign-born blacks account for about 8% of total black population, they account for 16% of births, making their fertility rates much higher. Both Caribbean and African-born immigrants tend to be younger than the native black population and often have higher levels of education. Thirty-eight percent of foreign born blacks from Africa have a college degree. Seventy-six percent of children born to African immigrants, and 65% born to Caribbean immigrants live in a two parent family, versus 44% for children born to native U.S. blacks.

The effect of this for marketers is that the black population in several major markets is changing rapidly. Because, like most immigrant groups, newcomers tend to live in neighborhoods with other immigrants, local differences within a market may be extreme, making store-by-store assortment decisions essential to success.

Regional Trends:
Europe
For much of the 19^th and early 20^th centuries, Europe was a supplier of migrants to provinces, colonies, and to the United States. Today, however, strong economies, rapidly aging populations, and shrinking labor forces have made many European countries magnets for incoming migrants. The EU currently takes in between 300,000–500,000 legal immigrants annually, with estimates ranging up to 500,000 for unauthorized persons entering annually.

As European populations age—and several of the oldest countries in the world are in Western Europe—countries will need to either boost fertility rates (which have been falling for decades), increase the flow of skilled immigrant labor, or both in order to fill jobs vacated by retirees and to pay for pensions. Some countries have had limited success with programs intended to increase fertility rates (monies paid to families with children, longer leaves for childbirth, etc.), but most have only stopped the decline in fertility rather than reversed it. That leaves new immigrants as the only other source for workers.

Americas
The United States and Canada take in more immigrants than any other countries in the world. Mexico, Central and South America, and Asia account for the majority of immigrants, though as we have seen, other groups such as Caribbeans and Africans are also making inroads. The majority of population growth in both countries comes from immigrants and the second and third generation children of immigrants. By 2030, all population growth in Canada will come from new immigrants. Between 2005 and 2050, immigrants, their children, and their grandchildren will account for 82% of population growth in the United States.

The chart below illustrates long-term immigration to the U.S. The peak in 1991 comes from the illegal immigrant amnesty from the 1990 immigration reforms.

Asia
Asia is a principal supplier of immigrants to both North America and Western Europe. In addition, large numbers of persons move within Asia on guest worker visas. Many of the Asians who move to the more-developed world are well educated and may already hold professional degrees.

Middle East
The oil-rich states of the Middle East have the highest shares of foreign workers of all countries of the world. Foreigners fill the majority of private sector jobs in Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, 90% or more in some occupations in some countries. Rapid population growth among the native populations mixed with a very high incidence of foreign workers means that unemployment among younger residents is a growing problem.

A major force
Immigration has been and will continue to be a major force in shaping global populations. People move for a variety of reasons, from escaping something bad to heading for something good, and their numbers continue to mount. Aging populations in the more-developed world mean that these countries will be targets for immigrants for decades to come. As globalization forges more links between countries and the cost of traveling continues to fall, increasing numbers of people will leave their homes for new opportunities.

Immigrants bring with them new cultures, new tastes, and often new languages, all challenges for makers and sellers of consumer products. Strong immigrant communities provide a little piece of home that attracts more immigrants. It may not be appreciably harder, beyond the journey itself, for a rural Mexican laborer to adjust to life in Los Angeles than to life in Mexico City. In both places, he or she will likely be employed in a 3-D job (dirty, dangerous and difficult), will struggle to find affordable housing, and will live in an area where everyone speaks Spanish and where the stores carry familiar products.

Sources:
Population Reference Bureau
   Population Bulletin March 2008
   Population Bulletin December 2007
   Other PRB articles
United Nations Population Division
   Replacement Migration
   High Level Dialogue on International Migration and Development (Summary by the Chair)
   Proceeds of the Economic and Social Council
The World Bank
   Migration and Remittances Factbook
Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life